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Home | Courses | The 10-Day Advanced Project Economics & Risk Management for Oil & Gas Professionals
Date
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Fees
28 Jun 09 Jul 2021 London - UK $11,900 Register
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Course Description

Seminar Outline

The training seminar is split into two modules:

MODULE I - Tools & Techniques for Managing Risk & Uncertainty

MODULE II - Advanced Oil & Gas Project Economics, Risk & Decision Analysis

Each module is structured and can be taken as a stand-alone training course; however, delegates will maximise their benefits by taking Module 1 and 2 back-to-back as a two-week training course.

 

MODULE I: Tools & Techniques for Managing Risk & Uncertainty

DAY 1

Fundamentals of Decision Analysis 

  • What is Project Management Decision Analysis?
  • The Purpose of the Project Business Case
  • The Need for Systematic Risk Management for Decision-Making
  • Risk and Uncertainty on Projects
  • Option Analysis
  • Identifying Key Decision-making Factors

Measures of Project Profitability

  • Fundamental Tools of Engineering Economics
  • Time Value of Money
  • Appraisal Methods - Discounted Cash Flow Projections
  • Time Equivalence

DAY 2

Cash-Flow Modelling and Project Decision Analysis 

  • Financial Modelling and Project Evaluation
  • Rate of Return Computations (IRR)
  • Determining the Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
  • The Risk of Not Understanding IRR

Analysing Project Specifics

  • Understanding the Project Context to Assist in Decision-making
  • Determine Stakeholders and their Level of Influence
  • Capture Requirements
  • Determine Scope of Work

DAY 3

The Cost of Capital 

  • Capital & Operating Expenditures (CAPEX / OPEX)
  • Estimating the Cost of Capital for a Project
  • Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR)
  • Dis-benefits

Risk Modelling in practice 

  • Identify Risks
  • Forecasting Risk Impacts & Probabilities
  • Opportunity Costs, Sunk Costs & Salvage Value of a Project
  • Determining the Risk Priorities
  • The need for Company Cash Flow

DAY 4

Decision Analysis: Expected Value Concept 

  • Basic Probability Concepts
    • Fundamental Probability Concepts
    • Mutually& Non-Mutually Exclusive, Independent Events
  • Quantitative Project Risk Analysis
    • Semi-Quantitative Bow-Tie Process
    • Detailed Risk Quantification and Prioritisation
    • Expected Monetary Value
    • Scenario Planning
  • Sensitivity Analysis Tools
    • Simulation Process
    • Tornado Diagram
    • Defining the Variables - PERT

DAY 5

Decision Trees, EMV, Risk Responses and ROI 

  • Decision Tree Analysis
    • Developing Decision Trees
    • Solving Decision Trees
  • Risk Responses
    • Developing Risk Responses
    • Evaluating Response Relevance
  • ROI Analysis
    • Understanding ROI
    • Identifying ROI
    • Evaluating and Presenting your Project Options

 

MODULE II: Advanced Oil & Gas Project Economics, Risk & Decision Analysis

DAY 6

Development Economics

  • A Brief History of Energy Usage
  • Principles of Development Economics
  • Understanding of Economic terms
  • Inflation and its Impact on Nominal & Real CashFlows
  • Project Financing

DAY 7

Uncertainty in Investments

  • Handling Uncertainty in Capital Projects
  • Understanding Probability Concepts
  • The Expected Value Concept: Features and Pitfalls
    • Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
    • Expected Profitability Index (EPI)
    • Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL)

DAY 8

Risks and Uncertainties

  • Risk & Uncertainty
  • Risk Eversion and Risk Premium
  • Exploration Project Threats and Opportunities
  • Economic Decision Criteria
  • Decision Tree Analysis
  • Probability Distribution
  • Case Study: Monte Carlo Simulation

DAY 9

Setting-up Spreadsheet Calculations Using Excel

  • Spreadsheet Calculations
    • CashFlow Analysis
    • Sensitivity Analysis Calculations
    • Tornado Diagrams
  • Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulations using @Risk
  • Class Exercises: Setting-up an Oil Field Project

DAY 10

Practical Use of the @Risk add-on: Oil Field Development Model

  • Developing an Integrated Economic Model of an Oil Field Development
  • Developing and using an @Risk Model Analysis
  • Project Sensitivity Analysis utilizing data from @Risk Model
  • Training Seminar Final Review and Close
Certificates
  • On successful completion of this training course, GLOMACS Certificate with eligible Continuing Professional Education credits (CPE) from National Registry of CPE Sponsor and Professional Development Units (PDUs) / Contact Hours from Project Management Institute (PMI®), will be awarded to the delegates
Providers and Associations

Endorsed Education Provider

  • Quality Logo
  • Quality Logo

REP logo, PMI & PMP are registered trademarks of Project Management Institute, Inc.

In Association With

PetroKnowledge

PetroKnowledge

Our collaboration with Petroknowledge aims to provide the best training services and benefits for our valued clients

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