Introduction
This training course equips professionals to evaluate project value and manage uncertainty throughout the investment and delivery lifecycle. Investment choices require more than a single financial forecast: they need credible assumptions, structured risk assessment and clear accountability. Participants will connect economic appraisal with risk identification, analysis, response planning and control. The training course develops a consistent approach to comparing alternatives, testing financial resilience and selecting proportionate actions while maintaining the governance and compliance requirements that support sound project decisions.
The training course progresses from economic foundations and risk planning to qualitative assessment, decision analysis and quantitative modelling, before bringing the results into response and control arrangements. Participants will examine how financing, inflation, project complexity and uncertainty affect cash flows and investment outcomes. Excel and @RISK support the development and interpretation of economic and simulation models. Attention is also given to risk ownership, assurance, reserves and reporting, enabling participants to explain analytical findings, challenge assumptions and translate evidence into practical recommendations for their organisations.
This training course will highlight:
- Economic appraisal linked to project risk governance
- Structured identification and assessment of project uncertainty
- Decision analysis for competing investment alternatives
- Excel and @RISK modelling for uncertainty analysis
- Risk responses supported by assurance and control
Objectives
At the end of this training course, you will learn to:
- Evaluate project economics and investment alternatives
- Develop integrated risk and compliance arrangements
- Analyse uncertainty using structured decision techniques
- Build and interpret quantitative risk models
- Select responses and monitor residual exposure
Training Methodology
This training course combines focused technical explanations, facilitated discussion and progressively linked practical analysis. Participants develop economic and risk assessments using Excel and @RISK, interpret results and compare response options. Worked examples connect financial appraisal, schedule exposure, compliance requirements and governance decisions. Group review and individual reflection reinforce the transfer of methods to workplace projects.
Organisational Impact
The organisation will have the following benefits:
- Better investment choices under uncertain conditions
- More consistent project risk ownership arrangements
- Stronger financial assumptions and modelling discipline
- Clearer compliance evidence and assurance responsibilities
- Better aligned contingency and management reserves
- More informative risk reporting and escalation
Personal Impact
At the end of this training course, participants will gain:
- Greater confidence in evaluating investment proposals
- Stronger skills in financial sensitivity analysis
- Practical competence in quantitative risk modelling
- Improved judgement when comparing response options
- Clearer communication of uncertainty and exposure
- Stronger capability in risk governance practice
Who should Attend?
This training course supports professionals evaluating investments and managing project uncertainty. It also benefits those responsible for governance and assurance.
This training course is suitable for a wide range of professionals, particularly:
- Project, programme and project risk managers
- Economists, investment analysts and business advisers
- Commercial, finance and asset management professionals
- Planning, estimating and project controls specialists
- Project engineers and technical discipline leads
- Compliance, quality and assurance professionals
Project Economics and Risk Governance
- Economic context and development principles: capital investment, changing energy use and the relationship between project benefits and organisational value.
- Investment structure and project financing: funding sources, capital and operating expenditure, financing assumptions and their effects on appraisal.
- Cash flow foundations: relevant incremental flows, investment timing, inflation and consistent treatment of nominal and real values.
- Economic appraisal principles: time value of money, discounting, net present value, internal rate of return and profitability criteria.
- Risk foundations: uncertainty, threats, opportunities, risk appetite, tolerance and the relationship between economic value and exposure.
- Risk governance and compliance: sponsor accountability, risk ownership, applicable obligations, approval authorities and assurance responsibilities.
- Risk management planning: lifecycle processes, assessment criteria, stakeholder engagement, documentation, resources and review frequency.
- Connecting the business case and risk plan: objectives, assumptions,
investment boundaries and a consistent basis for subsequent analysis.
Risk Identification and Qualitative Assessment
- External and internal risk sources: economic conditions, regulatory change, organisational context, project complexity and stakeholder interfaces.
- Structured identification methods: interviews, workshops, checklists, document review, assumptions analysis and risk breakdown structures.
- Risk descriptions and registers: separating causes, uncertain events and consequences; recording ownership, existing controls and affected objectives.
- Estimating uncertainty: cost and duration ranges, data quality, optimism bias and links between estimating assumptions and identified exposure.
- Schedule exposure: critical path dependencies, PERT estimates and the implications of uncertainty for project completion.
- Qualitative prioritisation: calibrated probability and impact scales, urgency, proximity, inherent exposure and residual exposure.
- Bow tie analysis and integrity assurance: preventive controls, consequence mitigation, control effectiveness and evidence of compliance.
- Selecting risks for quantitative analysis: materiality, interdependencies, escalation thresholds and the quality of available evidence.
Decision Analysis for Uncertain Investments
- Probability concepts for project decisions: conditional probability, dependence, mutually exclusive outcomes and the use of credible evidence.
- Decision framing: objectives, competing investment alternatives, constraints and the distinction between decisions and uncertain outcomes.
- Expected monetary value: probability weighted outcomes, interpretation, limitations and the consequences of relying on averages.
- Expected profitability index and expected opportunity loss: consistent definitions, comparison of alternatives and the value of additional information.
- Decision trees: structuring sequential choices, chance events, cash flow consequences and the calculation of preferred alternatives.
- Risk attitudes: risk aversion, risk premiums and the effect of organisational preferences on investment recommendations.
- Scenario and sensitivity analysis: downside, central and upside assumptions; switching values and the drivers of investment viability.
- Decision recommendations: combining economic criteria, uncertainty, compliance constraints and strategic considerations in a defensible rationale.
Economic Modelling and Monte Carlo Simulation
- Integrated Excel model structure: inputs, calculations, outputs, consistent time periods and traceable assumptions for project cash flows.
- Model quality and verification: formula checks, units, inflation and discounting consistency, financial logic and reproducibility.
- Deterministic sensitivity analysis: changing key inputs, comparing outputs and using tornado diagrams to identify influential assumptions.
- Probability distribution selection: choosing suitable ranges and shapes, assessing evidence and representing uncertainty without false precision.
- Monte Carlo principles: repeated sampling, dependent inputs, correlation, simulation stability and limitations of model outputs.
- @RISK model configuration: defining uncertain inputs and forecast outputs, setting simulation parameters and running an integrated economic model.
- Result interpretation: expected values, percentiles, probability of negative value, downside exposure and confidence levels for cost and schedule.
- Risk based comparison of alternatives: simulation sensitivity, decision robustness and the implications for responses and reserve requirements.
Risk Responses Compliance Assurance and Control
- Response selection: prioritising exposure and choosing proportionate strategies for threats and opportunities within approved risk appetite.
- Response economics: comparing implementation costs, expected benefits, alternative actions and the effect on project value and residual exposure.
- Response planning and validation: accountable owners, resources, deadlines, triggers, feasibility checks and secondary risks.
- Contingency and management reserves: purposes, estimation approaches, links to quantitative results and controls over authorisation and use.
- Compliance and assurance arrangements: obligations registers, control evidence, integrity checks, review responsibilities and escalation of exceptions.
- Risk monitoring and project performance: control effectiveness, indicators, earned value trends, emerging risks and updates to cost and schedule forecasts.
- Risk reporting and governance decisions: exposure trends, model revisions, response status, reserve use and documented escalation and approvals.
- Integrated review and workplace application: reconciling the business case, risk register, economic model and response plan into a consistent decision record.
- Upon successful completion of this training course, GLOMACS Certificate will be awarded to the delegates. Continuing Professional Education credits (CPE): In accordance with the standards of the National Registry of CPE Sponsors, one CPE credit is granted per 50 minutes of attendance
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