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Course Description

INTRODUCTION

This 5 day, Phase 2 GLOMACS Training Seminar is concerned with one of the most important activities in the development of oil and gas business-forecasting the oil prices, as basis for planning and investment. As we have learned that oil prices are depending on many factors, and that prices simulations need to be much more stringent in order to determine the actual risk that our investment is facing.

A critical component of decision-making in the energy industry deals with the aspect of “Whither oil prices?”:  Where do we expect prices to move in the near- and distant-terms?  Participants in the Energy Industry are constantly confronted with a wide range of information regarding current and prospective prices in their industry.  Broadly, this data comes from analyses of supply-and-demand changes, geopolitical events and the financial markets, including the commodity markets.

The oil projects require lot of investment, and it takes years for the oilfield to start producing profit, therefore adequate forecasts are essential for companies to understand when and how their returns on investment will appear and how valuable will they be.

While providing the requisite background on the economics of financial commodity markets, as well as the statistical tools required to understand them, this GLOMACS Training Seminar demonstrates how the financial and commodity markets provide useful information for the generation of “expected prices”, or forecast prices, in the critical areas of oil, natural-gas and refined products. In so doing, this GLOMACS training course will also demonstrate the important distinction between valuation and risk/return analyses.

This GLOMACS training seminar course will develop an understanding of pricing, risk management, asset valuation and derivatives within the energy markets:

  • Learn to use financial models to analyze and forecast energy prices; extrapolate forward prices beyond the liquidity tenor
  • Understand the risk of and return from futures and options contracts on energy commodities
  • Manage and optimize your organization’s energy risk exposure
  • Learn to estimate and calculate volatility in energy prices
  • Utilize real options theory to value energy assets; use information from futures / option prices to make optimal production decisions: Optimal timing for extraction, optimal rate at which to extract oil (gas) from a field; value oil fields, pipelines and storage facilities, power plants

Objectives

The objectives of this GLOMACS training course are to provide a comprehensive introduction to the computation and application of forecast prices in the energy industry, with a focus on the oil, natural-gas and refined products segments. Inter alia, the course presents the basic statistical tools required to operationalize these concepts.

At the end of this GLOMACS training seminar, participants will learn to:

  • Use financial models to analyze and forecast energy prices; extrapolate forward prices beyond the liquidity tenor
  • Understand the risk of and return from futures and options contracts on energy commodities
  • Manage and optimize their corporations’ energy risk exposure
  • Estimate expected returns and calculate volatility in energy prices
  • Obtain a comprehensive understanding of the financial-economics techniques used to forecast prices
  • Apply option valuation techniques to the energy markets
  • Utilize real options theory to value energy assets; use information from futures / option prices to make optimal production decisions: Optimal timing for extraction, optimal rate at which to extract oil (gas) from a field; value oil fields, pipelines and storage facilities, power plants

Training Methodology

  • The course will be presented through a combination of four methodologies
  • Clear presentation of notes with the requisite supportive analytics
  • Detailed presentation of the relevant empirical regularities / stylized facts of the energy markets
  • Presentation of several case studies designed to exemplify the application of risk-management and valuation principles
  • Interspersed in the lectures are relevant problem-sets, designed to afford participants with the opportunity to apply the principles conveyed and see their implementation
  • Dissemination to and sharing with participant’s critical spreadsheets that will permit them to address issues within the course, as well as utilize these concepts once they have completed the course

Organisational Impact

From the perspective of the organization, this GLOMACS training seminar conveys to critical personnel the:

  • Computation and correct uses of price forecasts applicable to the energy industry
  • Application of concepts on risk and return on energy commodities
  • Manage and optimize their corporations’ energy risk exposure
  • Apply option valuation techniques to the energy markets
  • Understanding of the key elements of information conveyed by financial markets, and how to apply these to make better business decisions

Personal Impact

As a means of preparing individuals for the higher managerial rungs in their organization, the skills acquired in this GLOMACS training course include understanding the:

  • Main terminology used in the industry
  • Role of financial markets as efficient conveyors of information and assessors of risk
  • Valuation and role of futures contracts and swap agreements
  • Principles of option and derivative-claim valuation, hedging and uses
  • Necessary tools of financial-economics and statistics to forecast near and distant prices for oil, natural-gas and refined products
  • Means to utilize price forecasts to make better business decisions

WHO SHOULD ATTEND?

This GLOMACS training course is suitable to a wide range of professionals but will greatly benefit individuals working in financial analysis, valuation, trading, risk management or quantitative analysis positions with oil and gas exploration companies; investment and commercial banking, consulting, and financial services firms in the energy sector; production and distribution companies; energy trading firms; and corporations outside the energy industry with a significant cost exposure to energy prices.

In terms of job titles, these individuals include:

  • Financial Analysts
  • Quantitative Analysts or Researchers
  • Energy Traders
  • Risk Managers
  • Commercial and Investment Bankers dealing with commodities
  • Consultants in the commodity arena
  • Government and Regulatory Officials with responsibilities for the energy sector
Course Outline

DAY 1

Phase 2 is a more advanced sequel with a focus on additional influences, simulation models and current best practices in applying forecasting for oil and gas products, as well as insight of the actual way the upstream petroleum companies are planning their projects.  

DAY 2

The Statistics of the Price Processes in Energy Markets

  • Historical Volatility: The Term Structure of Volatility (TSOV)
  • Estimating Volatility from Market Prices of Options in Energy Markets
  • Historical or Implied Vols?
  • Estimating a Mean-Reverting Process
  • Characterizing the Volatility “Surface” Across Time and Strike

DAY 3

The Extrapolation in Energy Finance

  • Jump-Diffusion Process
  • Valuation of Long-Dated Real Assets and Financial Structured Products
  • Extrapolating Crude-Oil Prices
  • Extrapolating Natural-Gas Prices
  • Extrapolating the Term Structure of Volatilities (TSOV)
  • Extrapolating Correlations

DAY 4

Energy Derivative Products:  Structuring and Valuation

  • Commercial Structured Products
  • Categorizing Derivative Products: Option Collars, Average Options, Spread Options, Swing Options, Weather Derivatives, Commodity-linked Bonds; “Swing” Options; Weather Derivatives
  • Structuring and Valuing Option Collars
  • Structuring and Valuing Average (Asian) Options

DAY 5

Energy Derivative Products:  Calibration and Hedging in Profitable Market-Making

  • Example of Calibration: Using Vanilla Options to Determine the Value of Volatility for Valuation of Average Options
  • Non-Commercial Structured Products
  • Exotic Instruments: Constant Maturity Contracts, Compound Options, Quanto Contracts

DAY 6

Geopolitical and Economic Events and Crude Oil Prices

  • Inventories, Oil Prices and Production
  • Difficulty in Planning for the Oil Safety Stock
  • API Reports
  • Oil Market Rebalancing
  • Cost Break-even Oil Prices
  • Role of Shale Oil
  • Diversification in the GCC
  • How different countries deal with the oil price changes?
Certificates
  • On successful completion of this training course, GLOMACS Certificate will be awarded to the delegates
  • Continuing Professional Education credits (CPE) : In accordance with the standards of the National Registry of CPE Sponsor, one CPE credit is granted per 50 minutes of attendance
Providers and Associations

Endorsed Education Provider

  • Quality Logo

GLOMACS is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its website: www.NASBARegistry.org

In Association With

PetroKnowledge

PetroKnowledge

Our collaboration with Petroknowledge aims to provide the best training services and benefits for our valued clients

Visit website

Oxford Management Centre

Oxford Management Centre

A GLOMACS - Oxford Management Centre collaboration aimed at providing the best training services and benefits to our valued clients.

Visit website

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Frequently Asked Question:

How can I find out more information about a specific course?

For detailed information about specific courses, including course content, schedules, and instructors, you can visit our website or contact our customer service team. They will be happy to provide all the information you need to make an informed decision.

Can I get a discount for group bookings?

Yes, GLOMACS offers special discounts for group bookings. If you’re planning to enroll multiple participants from your organization, please reach out to our team to discuss the available discount packages.

How are GLOMACS courses structured?

Our courses are structured to provide a balanced mix of theory and practical application. They typically include presentations, case studies, group discussions, hands-on activities, and interactive Q&A sessions to maximize learning outcomes.

Will I receive a certificate upon completing a GLOMACS course?

Yes, upon successful completion of any of our training courses, GLOMACS Certificate will be awarded to the delegates. This certificate is a valuable addition to your professional portfolio and is recognized across various industries.

Does GLOMACS offer customized training for organizations?

Yes, GLOMACS provides customized training solutions tailored to meet the specific needs of organizations. We work closely with companies to design bespoke training courses that address their unique challenges and objectives.

How can I register for a GLOMACS course?

You can register for a GLOMACS training course by visiting our website, selecting the course of your choice, and following the simple registration process. You can also contact our support team for assistance with the registration process.

Who are the trainers at GLOMACS?

Our trainers are industry experts with years of practical experience in their respective fields. They bring real-world knowledge and insights into the classroom, ensuring that our participants receive top-tier, applicable skills and expertise.

Are GLOMACS training courses available online or in person?

GLOMACS offers both online and in-person training options. You can choose from interactive virtual sessions or attend one of our globally located in-person training courses. The flexibility ensures that learning fits your schedule and preferences.

What types of training courses does GLOMACS offer?

GLOMACS offers a wide range of professional development training courses across various industries, including Leadership & Management, Finance & Accounting, Human Resources, Engineering, Oil & Gas, Operations and Logistics, Engineering and Technical and more. Our training courses are designed to enhance career growth and organizational effectiveness.

What are the key benefits of attending a GLOMACS course?

Attending a GLOMACS training course offers numerous benefits, including enhanced professional skills, increased employability, industry-recognized certification, networking opportunities with peers and experts, and the chance to apply practical knowledge directly to your workplace.

Why should I choose GLOMACS?

GLOMACS is a globally recognized leader in professional training and development, with a reputation for delivering high-quality, results-driven training courses. We offer a broad spectrum of training courses taught by expert trainers, flexible delivery options (both online and in-person), and accredited certifications that add real value to your career.

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