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Course Description

INTRODUCTION

In this training course we address crucial aspects of modern financial and energy commodity markets—their flexible trading strategies. We present and discuss the sophisticated techniques required to evaluate derivative market instruments for Liquified Natural Gas (LNG). These are vital for managing risk and optimizing investment strategies in energy markets. Derivatives such as options, futures, and swaps provide flexibility to market participants, allowing them to hedge against price fluctuations and capitalize on favorable financial outcomes. By focusing on advanced analytical methods and algorithms, the training course equips delegates with the analytical tools needed to model and predict market behavior, design investment strategies, and make informed decisions.

 This GLOMACS Advanced LNG Option Pricing training course will highlight the following:

  • Regional natural gas markets and LNG business
  • Price behavior and stochastic models in energy commodity markets
  • Tools and Techniques for valuation of derivative contracts
  • Analytical tools: Monte Carlo Simulation, Binomial lattice, and mathematical solutions (including Black-Scholes options pricing model)
  • Case studies in option valuation and decision making.

Objectives

This training course provides a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics and valuation methods in energy commodity markets, particularly option contracts for LNG. Delegates learn about price behavior of energy commodities using stochastic models and will develop proficiency in using advanced analytical tools and techniques such as Monte Carlo Simulation, Binomial lattice, and the Black-Scholes options pricing model.

At the end of this Advanced LNG Option Pricing training course, you will learn to:

  • Understand the Dynamics of Regional Natural Gas and LNG Markets to Assess flexible trading contracts.
  • Evaluating Stochastic Models for Modeling Price Behavior in Energy Markets.
  • Apply Advanced Analytical Tools (including Monte Carlo simulation, binomial lattice, and mathematical models) for Derivative Valuation.
  • Critically Analyze Case Studies in LNG Option Valuation and Decision Making.
  • Formulate Value-Creating Strategies based on Comprehensive Market Analysis.

Training Methodology

This taining course is designed to provide a comprehensive learning experience that integrates the instructor's firsthand experience in international energy companies with a robust theoretical framework. Drawing from years of practical experience in valuation of flexible contracts in the natural gas markets, the instructor brings real-world insights and industry best practices to the discussions.

This practical knowledge is complemented by a strong theoretical background in option pricing, risk analysis, and valuation methods. Through interactive lectures, case studies, and hands-on exercises, participants will have the opportunity to apply theoretical concepts to real-world scenarios, enhancing their analytical skills and decision-making capabilities in the dynamic and complex LNG industry.

Organisational Impact

In any corporation, creating business value is the goal. With uncertain prices and complex market trends, those firms that understand good decision making and invest in valuable ventures will be poised to succeed in this evolving landscape.

 This training course trains individuals that:

  • Enhanced Risk Management: Employees will develop advanced skills in valuing and managing derivative contracts, allowing the organization to better hedge against price volatility in energy markets, thereby reducing financial risk.
  • Improved Strategic Decision-Making: With a deep understanding of regional natural gas markets and LNG business dynamics, employees can provide informed recommendations for strategic investments and market entry, contributing to more effective business planning and growth.
  • Increased Analytical Proficiency: Mastery of analytical tools such as Monte Carlo Simulation, Binomial lattice, and the Black-Scholes options pricing model will enable employees to perform sophisticated financial analyses, leading to better market forecasts and more-informed trading decisions.
  • Competitive Advantage: The advanced knowledge and skills gained from the course will position the organization as a leader in the energy sector, capable of leveraging complex financial instruments and market insights to gain a competitive edge.
  • Enhanced Innovation: By understanding and applying stochastic models and advanced valuation techniques, employees will be equipped to innovate in financial product development, creating new derivative instruments tailored to the organization's strategic needs.
  • Better Informed Policy and Compliance: Employees will be better prepared to navigate regulatory environments and ensure compliance with financial and energy market regulations, reducing the risk of legal issues and enhancing the organization’s reputation for reliability and integrity.

Personal Impact

In general, gaining knowledge and skills in valuation and decision-making opens one’s perspectives. In LNG option valuation context, the set of skills and knowledge that this training course offers prepares individuals for a more effective role within the process of corporate decision making.

This training course will:

  • Prepare individuals for a role with a wider perspective.
  • Give participants a more informed frame of mind.
  • Support their existing knowledge and skill set with analytical capabilities.
  • Enable participants to analyze complex derivative instruments and generate decision insights.
  • Promote personal skills in option valuation and effective decision making.

WHO SHOULD ATTEND?

This training course is useful for analysts, engineers, and managers involved in the process of LNG option pricing and analysis, as well as professionals interested in the practice of LNG business.

This GLOMACS Advanced LNG Option Pricing training course is suitable to a wide range of professionals but will greatly benefit:

  • Technical staff who are interested in option pricing in general and LNG options in particular.
  • Commercial staff interested in gaining in-depth knowledge of valuation and analysis.
  • Managers involved in LNG trading and investment.
  • Researchers and practitioners who aim to broaden their knowledge of valuation.
  • Managers in industries and professions supplying or serving the industry who would like a deeper understanding of LNG, e.g., bankers, lawyers, analysts, service majors, etc.
  • Project managers, Engineers, Planners & scheduling professionals
Course Outline

Day 1

Introduction to LNG Options Trading

  • Introduction to energy commodity markets
  • Price behavior of stocks and commodities
  • LNG pricing mechanisms
  • Stochastic models: Random Walk, Geometric Brownian Motion, and Mean-Reversion
  • Natural gas markets and their fat-tailed prices
  • Derivative contracts in commodity exchanges
  • Options contract: Types, Terminology, and importance in LNG Trading

Day 2

An Overview of Commodity Options Pricing Models

  • Basics of stochastic price modeling
  • Historical price trends and volatility—Forward looking implied volatility.
  • Valuation models: binomial lattice, Black-Scholes options pricing Model, and Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Recognizing the strengths and weakness of each model and their applications
  • Understanding Greeks and sensitivities
  • Spreadsheet models of valuation and simulation add-ins: introduction to Lumivero’s @risk software

Day 3

Monte Carlo Simulation and Binomial Model

  • Basics of Monte Carlo Simulation: theory versus practice
  • Risk analysis and option pricing using Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Implementation of Monte Carlo simulation models
  • Lumivero’s @risk software for efficient simulations
  • Understanding the Binomial Model theory and calculations
  • Building binomial lattice in Spreadsheets and valuation of American options
  • Modeling path dependency in a binomial lattice
  • Practical example: European option on LNG futures
  • Model validation and testing: sensitivity analysis.

Day 4

Understanding the Binomial Model

  • Dynamic programming and basics of backward recursion algorithm
  • Analytical models: derivation of Black and Scholes model and its limitations
  • Major flaw of the analytical models: geometric Brownian motion assumption
  • Practical example: Binomial lattice for LNG options pricing
  • Scenario Analysis: Comparing results from different models in real-life scenarios.
  • Trends in option valuation: Least Squares Monet Carlo Simulation for complex options
Certificates
  • On successful completion of this training course, GLOMACS Certificate will be awarded to the delegates
  • Continuing Professional Education credits (CPE) : In accordance with the standards of the National Registry of CPE Sponsor, one CPE credit is granted per 50 minutes of attendance
Providers and Associations

Endorsed Education Provider

  • Quality Logo

GLOMACS is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its website: www.NASBARegistry.org

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