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Course Schedule
Classroom Sessions:
Date Venue Fees
02 - 13 Sep 2024 Dubai - UAE $11,900
04 - 15 Nov 2024 London - UK $11,900
Course Description


This training course is split into two modules:

MODULE I - Project Analysis : Tools & Techniques for Managing Risk & Uncertainty

MODULE II - Advanced Project Economics, Risk & Decision Analysis

Each module is structured and can be taken as a stand-alone training course; however, delegates will maximise their benefits by taking Module 1 and 2 back-to-back as a 2-week training course.

Course Outline
Module 1: Project Analysis : Tools & Techniques for Managing Risk & Uncertainty


Fundamentals of Decision Analysis

  • What is project management decision analysis?
  • The purpose of the project business case
  • The need for systematic risk management for decision-making
  • Risk and uncertainty on projects
  • Option analysis
  • Identifying key decision-making factors

Measures of Project Profitability

  • Fundamental tools of engineering economics
  • Time value of money
  • Appraisal methods - Discounted Cash Flow Projections
  • Time equivalence



Cash-Flow Modelling and Project Decision Analysis

  • Financial Modelling and Project Evaluation
  • Internal Rate of Return computations (IRR)
  • Determining the Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
  • The risk of not understanding IRR

Analysing Project Specifics

  • Understanding the project context to assist in decision-making
  • Determine stakeholders and their level of influence
  • Capture requirements
  • Determine scope of work



The Cost of Capital

  • Capital & Operating Expenditures (CAPEX / OPEX)
  • Estimating the cost of capital for a project
  • Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR)
  • Dis-benefits

Risk Modelling in Practice

  • Identify Risks
  • Forecasting risk impacts & probabilities
  • Opportunity costs, sunk costs & salvage value of a project
  • Determining the Risk Priorities
  • The need for company cash flow



Decision Analysis: Expected Value Concept

  • Basic Probability Concepts
    • Fundamental probability concepts
    • Mutually & non-mutually exclusive, independent events
  • Quantitative Project Risk Analysis
    • Semi-quantitative bow-tie process
    • Detailed risk quantification and prioritisation
    • Expected monetary value
    • Scenario planning
  • Sensitivity Analysis Tools
    • Simulation process
    • Tornado diagram
    • Defining the variables - PERT


Decision Trees, EMV, Risk Responses and ROI

  • Decision Tree Analysis
    • Developing decision trees
    • Solving decision trees
  • Risk Responses
    • Developing risk responses
    • Evaluating response relevance
  • ROI Analysis
    • Understanding ROI
    • Identifying ROI
    • Evaluating and presenting your project options
Module 2: Advanced Project Economics, Risk & Decision Analysis


Development Economics

  • A brief history of energy usage
  • Principles of development economics
  • Understanding of economic terms
  • Inflation and its impact on nominal & real cashflows
  • Project financing


Uncertainty in Investments

  • Handling uncertainty in capital projects
  • Understanding probability concepts
  • The expected value concept: features and pitfalls
    • Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
    • Expected Profitability Index (EPI)
    • Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL)


Risks and Uncertainties

  • Risk & uncertainty
  • Risk aversion and risk premium
  • Exploration project threats and opportunities
  • Economic decision criteria
  • Decision tree analysis
  • Probability distribution
  • Monte Carlo simulation


Setting-up Spreadsheet Calculations Using Excel

  • Spreadsheet Calculations
    • Cashflow analysis
    • Sensitivity analysis calculations
    • Tornado diagrams
  • Introduction to Monte Carlo simulations using @Risk

DAY 10

Practical Use of the @Risk add-on

  • Developing an integrated economic model
  • Developing and using an @Risk Model Analysis
  • Project sensitivity analysis utilizing data from @Risk Model
  • Training course final review and close
  • On successful completion of this training course, GLOMACS Certificate will be awarded to the delegates
  • Continuing Professional Education credits (CPE) : In accordance with the standards of the National Registry of CPE Sponsor, one CPE credit is granted per 50 minutes of attendance
Providers and Associations

Endorsed Education Provider

  • Quality Logo

GLOMACS is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its website:

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